April 22-24 is the next swing High

http://www.safehaven.com/article/33547/april-22-24-is-the-next-swing-high

In my last post on April 10, I was looking for a 4/11-14 major swing Low.

http://timeandcycles.blogspot.com/2014/04/the-trapdoor-to-hell.html

Forecast made in the 4/12 Raj T&C weekend report: "After the 4/11-14L, the bias is higher into 4/22-24H at the 4/21 Solar and 4/22& 4/24 geometric CIT."

Actual: We made an 4/11 Low as expected (click on chart to enlarge) and have so far rallied 70 SP's into 4/22 High, right at the upper edge of the 8.5 week large trading range & sideways channel.

What's Next: We make an 4/22-24 swing High at the 4/21 Solar, 4/22 Geometric and 4/24 Geometric CIT.

There are a cluster of 144 TD, 360 TD and 250/500 TD Cycles due the next 2 weeks.

144 TD cycles:
10 X 144 = 1440 TD + 08/11/08H= 5/01
09 X 144 = 1296 TD + 03/06/09L = 4/30, 1296 is also 36 Squared.
08 X 144 = 1152 TD + 09/03/09L = 4/4/14H!
07 X 144 = 1008 CD + 7/21/11H = 4/24
07 X 144 = 1008 TD + 4/26/10H = 4/28
06 X 144 =  864 TD + 11/16/10L = 4/25
05 X 144 =  720 TD + 06/16/11L = 4/29
04 X 144 =  576 TD + 12/19/11L = 4/4/14H! (-1 TD)
03 X 144 =  432 TD + 08/02/12L = 4/23
02 X 144 =  288 TD + 02/26/13L = 4/17
01 X 144 =  144 TD + 09/19/13H = 4/16

360 TD Cycles:
1 X 360 = 11/16/12L +   360 TD = 4/25
2 X 360 = 06/16/11L +   720 TD = 4/29
3 X 360 = 01/14/10H + 1080 TD = 4/30
4 X 360 = 08/11/08H + 1440 TD = 5/01

250 TD Cycles:
  500 + 05/01/12H = 4/29
  750 + 05/02/11H = 4/25
1000 + 04/26/10H = 4/16
1500 + 05/19/08H = 5/06
2000 + 05/08/06H = 4/21
2500 + 05/12/04L = 4/21
3000 + 05/07/02H = 4/21
3500 + 05/24/00L = 4/28
4000 + 06/16/98L = 5/12
4500 + 06/06/96H = 4/25
8000 + 08/09/82L = 4/30

Also due around this time are the Bond Market Interest Rates that has a regular long term 93 week cycle that has been active since January 2000. The last 93 week Cycle major Low (and Bond High) was the 7/25/12 Low at 24.52, piercing below the double bottom at 25.10-25.19.  The next 93 wk cycle is due in the April 25 2014 week +/- 2 wks and is biased to be an Interest Rate major Low.

Thursday, April 10, 2014

The Trapdoor to Hell

http://www.safehaven.com/article/33427/the-trapdoor-to-hell

For the last 7 weeks, the markets has been stuck in a large 50 SP Trading range, with 1835-40 SPX as critical Make or Break Trapdoor to Hell support and 1885-95 SPX as key resistance. We have now broken below the 1835-40 SPX Trapdoor to Hell, which should cause a sharper decline once we close below it.

In my last post, I mentioned: "We have been in a sideways trading range the last month, which ever way it breaks determines the next major direction in the markets." I was looking for a 3/28-31 Low." http://timeandcycles.blogspot.com/2014/03/raj-t-march-2014-review-forecast.html

Actual: The expected 3/28-31 Low was the 3/27 Low at 1842.11 SPX (1), 1 TD earlier. The 3/28 geometric CIT was the 3/27 Low. 3/27L was also as the 24 Squared week cycle Low and a Time squared CIT.

Updated forecast made on 4/2: The current bias is the 4/4 geometric Change in Trend (CIT) should be a swing High. 

Actual: We made fresh All time Highs at the 4/4 High at 1897.28 SPX and saw a Key reversal lower that day (2)

Forecast made on 4/7: Due to the many CITs in the coming week, we should see lots of volatility. From the 4/4 CIT High, we should decline into the 4/8 geometric CIT Low. We should then see a brief rally into 4/9-10H at the 4/10 geometric CIT. The decline then resumes into 4/11-14 Lows at the 4/11-14 T&C Cluster.

Actual: From the 4/4 High, we declined into 4/8 Low (3), rally into 4/10 High (4), reversed and decline into today 4/10 (5).

Friday 4/11 is the next proprietary Solar CIT and Monday 4/14 is the next important Trading day Squared CIT from 3/06/09 Major Lows:

Time Squares in TD from 03/06/09 Major Low has produced major Highs and Lows.
3/6/09L - 25.85^2 TD = 10/27/11H
3/6/09L - 27.84^2 TD = 04/02/12H
3/6/09L - 29.83^2 TD = 09/14/12H
3/6/09L - 31.83^2 TD = 03/18/13L (minor)
3/6/09L - 33.83^2 TD = 09/23/13H -2 (minor)
3/6/09L - 35.83^2 TD = 04/14/14 Next!

What's Next: We should make an 4/11-14 swing Low. The decline below 1835-40 SPX should see a sharper decline, but we should make an 4/11-14 Time Cluster CIT swing Low.

Friday, March 28, 2014

Raj T&C March 2014 Review & Forecast

http://www.safehaven.com/article/33266/raj-time-and-cycles-march-2014-review-and-forecast

In my last public post, I was looking for a 3/3-4 major Low. http://timeandcycles.blogspot.com/2014/03/raj-time-and-cycle-review-and-forecast.html

Since that 3/3 Low of the Month, we saw a sideways and choppy March Month. In early March 4, the important Times to watch for the month of March and the March 2014 Cycles forecast Roadmap was emailed. During the march month some times were revised 1-2 TD earlier (like the 3/17L, was adjusted to the 3/14L), but overall the forecast remained the same.

Important Times to watch for March 2014 (vertical Cyan Lines on chart, click to enlarge):

1. 3/3-4 has a 3/3 Solar CIT, 3/04 geometric CIT and 3/04 SP Cycle CIT.

2. 3/11 has a double geometric CIT and 3/12 is the next Solar CIT.

3. 3/17-18 double geometric CIT

4. 3/21 Solar CIT on Option Expiration (OE) day.

5. 3/28 geometric CIT, 3/31 Solar CIT and 7/18/06L + 53^2 = 03/27.

March 2014 Speculative Roadmap:

Forecast #1: (Red lines on chart) "We decline into the 3/3-4 Solar & geometric CIT Low"

Actual: We made a 3/3 Low of the Month at 1834.44 SPX.

Forecast #2: "From 3/3-4 Low, we rally into 3/11-12 Geometric and Solar CIT High"

Actual: We made a 3/11 High, that was a double Top with the 3/7 High.

Forecast #3: "From the 3/11-12 High, we then decline into 3/17-18 geometric CIT Low"

Actual: We declined into a 3/14-17 Low.

Forecast #4:  "We then rally into a 3/21 Solar CIT and Option Expiration (OE) High"

Actual: We rallied into a 3/21 OE High.

Forecast #5: "We then see a decline into 3/28-3/31 geometric & Solar CIT Low"

Actual: We declined so far into 3/27 Lows at 1842.11 SPX, close to my 1840 SPX target.

As can be seen in the examples above, the Solar and geometric Time CIT's are often exact, or at most +/- 1 day.

What's Next: We make a 3/28-31 CIT major Low, targeting 1830-40 SPX. There is another Low due at the 4/2-4 geometric CIT.The April important Times to watch and April Cycle Highs and Lows has been forecasted. We have been in a sideways trading range the last month, which ever way it breaks determines the next major direction in the markets.

3/31 Update: The expected 3/28-31 Low was the 3/27 Low, 1 TD earlier.
3/27 Low is also as the dominant 24 Squared week cycle Low (3/12/03L= 3/26/14L+1) and the 7/18/06L +52 Squared TD = 3/27/14 CIT Low. We are now bullishly biased.

Monday, March 3, 2014

Raj Time and Cycle Review and Forecast: March 3-4 Low

http://www.safehaven.com/article/32970/raj-time-and-cycle-review-and-forecast-march-3-4-low

In my last public post, I was looking for a strong rally from the 2/5/14L Squared CIT Low. http://timeandcycles.blogspot.com/2014/02/raj-time-and-cycle-review-and-forecast.html

Forecast #1 (Cyan lines on chart) from my 2/4 Email Update: "We should decline into 2/5 Lows, then rally into 2/18 Highs"

Actual: We made a 2/5 Low and rallied a strong 110+ SP's into 2/19 Highs as expected.

Forecast #2 from my 2/18 Email Update: "The bias is then 2/18 geometric CIT High, down into 2/20 double geometric CIT Low, then up again into 2/24-25 Solar and double geometric CIT High."

Actual: We made a 2/19H, declined into 2/20L and rallied into a 2/24H as expected. We then went sideways to lower for 2-3 days into 2/27L.

Forecast #3 from my 2/28 Update: "The 24 squared week cycle has a long track record and suggests a 2/28H and sharp decline into 3/04L"

Actual: We made a marginally higher 2/28 All time High and are now seeing a sharp decline on Monday 3/3.

What's next: We should decline into the 3/3-4 major Time & Cycle cluster Low.

The 3/3-4 Time and Cycle Cluster has a 3/3 Solar CIT, 3/04 geometric CIT and the 3/04 Symmetry Cycle CIT. Also Mars goes Retrograde and Sun trine Jupiter on 3/1 and Saturn Retrogrades on 3/2. The 322-25 TD cycle: 4/26/10H-08/09/11L-11/16/12L-03/04/14L. The 43-46 TD Cycle: 4/18/13L-6/24L-8/28L-10/30H-12/31H-03/05/14.  More importantly, the 24 squared week cycle has a 2/28H and 3/04L.